Cotton Import Tariffs And Garment Export Tax Rebates May Be Lowered.

Starting in September last year,

Against this background, the regulation of national policies is frequent.

Recently, there was a rumor in the market.

Policy is hard to come out in the near future

Since last week, there have been several rumors about the cotton market in the market: the state will import cotton tax free, and it will also reduce the value-added tax 3%-5% of agricultural products and food related industries.

At the same time, the export tax rebate rate of textile and garment will be reduced from 11% to 6%.

Yesterday, Reuters reported that a government official in China said that China had no plans to cut tariffs on agricultural products in the near future.

The Chinese Customs Committee usually convened in April and May each year to discuss the adjustment of tariff adjustments implemented in July 1st, and September or October to change January 1st next year.

Adjustments to the long term tax mechanism must be made at these regular meetings.

First textile network editor in chief Wang Qian yesterday told the new express reporter that "there are indeed discussions in the recent industry, including the call for the abolition of cotton slip tax."

But he believes that the possibility of big adjustment is not large at present. If the export tax rebate is cut by 5 percentage points, it may lead to the deterioration of the living environment of export enterprises.

Galaxy futures analyst also believes that the current rumour that the export tax rebate rate will be lowered may be due to the fact that some enterprises rely on tax fraud to maintain their livelihood in the case of small profits or even no profits. However, if a sharp reduction is possible, it will be more overpriced, which will make the price of cotton more volatile.

In the long run, it is inevitable to reduce the tax rebate rate, but the timing and adjustment should be cautious.

Policy regulation and warming

After rumors came out, the market showed a greater reaction.

On the 28 day, Zheng cotton plate fell 5.24%. In September, the main contract fell 1595 yuan on the first day, and it closed at 28825 yuan / ton, refreshing the new low for nearly half a month.

Yesterday, it remained low and closed at 28885 yuan / ton.

In fact, cotton prices seem to be "docile" since March, after which they had been consolidated in the range of 29 thousand yuan / ton to 31 thousand yuan / ton.

At present, policy regulation is also a warming trend.

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According to the information of China Cotton Association, in 2011, 2 million 600 thousand tons of cotton import quotas were allocated to enterprises, including 894 thousand tons of import tariff quotas and 1 million 700 thousand tons sliding tax quotas, which increased by 700 thousand tons over the same period last year.

In early March, in order to stabilize cotton prices, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued a notice that the warehouse receipts for the national cotton trading market could be converted into the warehouse receipts of Zhengshang merchants.

This means that the warehouse receipts have been substantially expanded, and other spot markets conform to the cotton warehouse receipt of the Zhengshang standard, which can be traded in the futures market, adding warehouses for deliveries.

Wang Qianjin believes that the above tariffs and sliding duties, even if the introduction of the market impact is not large.

At present, the tariff of cotton is relatively low, 1% of the tariff is about 400 yuan / ton, and the sliding duty is about 650 yuan / ton, but there is a huge price difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices. The current cotton quotation is nearly 8000 yuan / ton higher than that of domestic cotton.

Coupled with the fact that the actual paction is relatively cold, this has little effect on reducing the cost of the enterprise.

The supply gap is still large

Wang Qian said that the price of cotton will also oscillate between 25 thousand -3 yuan this year.

The reason why it is still high is that domestic cotton supply is tight at present, and the gap is still large in the whole year, and the pressure on imports will be even greater.

"At present, it is difficult for countries to find a particularly effective way to stabilize cotton prices. The most effective way is to throw away the state reserves.

At the same time, the quotas of major markets such as the US and India have been fixed, and the pattern of maintaining high positions during the year may be difficult to reverse.

Some textile enterprises also said that although many small and medium-sized textile enterprises in Zhejiang are not using much cotton stocks, they are reluctant to sell because of the high cotton prices.

Therefore, despite the fall in prices, the downstream enterprises are still very difficult to purchase at low prices, and in the case of frequent price fluctuations, they take the strategy of buying cotton first and then buying cotton.

It is understood that April will be the time of cotton planting in Xinjiang and North China. The increase of new cotton planting area is particularly critical for cotton prices.

However, according to the China Cotton Association data, from the cotton planting area in 2011, the area of the 11 main provinces of the 13 main cotton producing provinces increased, which brought a positive signal to the cotton price regulation in the second half of the year.