The Spring Festival Is Near. Is The Cotton Market Coming Again?

Judging from the trend of ICE and foreign cotton spot in recent years, the international market is very unlikely to be "safe" during the traditional Chinese holidays, and the probability of a sharp rise is very high. As the US government temporarily "stops" to resume its "business" (USDA will release the US cotton weekly export, monthly report, etc.), the employment report of the US in January will be very strong (the number of unemployed Jin people at the beginning of last week has dropped to the lowest level since November 1969), and the favorable results of the Australian main cotton producing area which has been replaced by the US cotton and the high yield of the Australian main cotton producing area has led to a sharp decline in 2018/19 production.

A foreign trader judged that the annual probe of the main contract of ICE has ended (low 70.65 cents / pound). In the month of 2/3 months, in India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Turkey and other countries, the situation of the buying and selling rhythm of the cotton mills and the supply and demand contradiction between high quality and high-grade machine picked cotton were constantly intensifying. The ICE futures contract broke 75, 78 and even stood firm 80 above the resistance level. The hope was bigger.

At present, the biggest variables in the market are two: first, the round out policy of cotton reserves in the first half of 2019; and two, whether the Sino US trade consultation can achieve substantial and positive progress at the end of January.

At the invitation of US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and trade representative Wright chiser, Vice Premier Liu He will visit China in from January 30th to 31st to hold a high-level consultation on Sino US economic and trade issues and jointly promote the implementation of the important consensus of the two heads of state.

From the perspective of market feedback, as long as the ICE main contract is broken 72 cents / pound, there will be a large number of buying and entering the market. There are both real cotton mills, cotton traders and speculators.

Recently, the two major cotton producing areas in India and Pakistan have reported a sharp decline in cotton production in 2018/19, and cotton quality is not "giving strength". Australia's cotton production plunged sharply in 2019. In addition, 2/3 will be more hyped in 2019 for the decline in the US and global cotton planting area. Therefore, from the basic supply and demand perspective, ICE's backing on the rebound of 70 cents / pound is ripe.

At present, whether the Federal Reserve itself or the market organization, in 2019, the expectation of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rate tends to slow down, plus the black line of crude oil and coal to regain its momentum, the peripheral commodity futures market will step into a rebound channel to stimulate the ICE and foreign cotton spot to accelerate the upward rhythm. Therefore, for Chinese textile enterprises and importers, the quota of cotton imports is very sufficient. On the premise of the active supply of cotton, West Africa cotton and Australian cotton in 2018, we should seize the opportunity to absorb the high-quality cotton resources ahead of schedule. Because the Sino US consultation is not so sure, although the quotations of C/A, EMOT/MOT and ME are relatively low, the risk of signing the import is still very large, and the buyers need to be cautious. "2018/19".